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BIG FOUR
The Arsenal and Liverpool games are irrelevant. The Gunners' 1-0 victory over Everton on Sunday means that Liverpool, who have been secure in at least fourth for some weeks now, can not catch the Gunners in third. In turn, Chelsea's 2-0 defeat of Newcastle at St James' Park on Bank Holiday Monday means that Avram Grant's side are four points ahead of the Gunners and are guaranteed at least second. Arsenal and Liverpool will therefore have to participate in a two-legged qualification tie to make it through to next season's Champions League proper.

There is, of course, far more on the line for Manchester United and Chelsea. The Blues ensured a tight final day finish with that win at Newcastle, but while they are level on points with United, Chelsea do not have their fate in their own hands. If United beat Wigan, Chelsea will have to beat Bolton and overhaul a massive goal difference of seventeen to snatch the title from Old Trafford. If both teams draw or lose, the title is United's on goal difference. However, if United lose or draw at the JJB and Chelsea win, the Blues will win the title.

So how likely is a Chelsea title win? Certainly with Bolton all-but sealing survival with a 2-0 win over Sunderland on Saturday (a massive goal difference switch is the only thing that can relegate them) it seems unlikely that Gary Megson's men will be as fired up for this match as their opponents are. What's more, Chelsea have not lost in the league since a 1-0 defeat at Arsenal in December and have only dropped points in five games since then. In contrast, United's 4-1 win at home to West Ham on Saturday was their first impressive league performance in a month, a period which has seen them draw with Blackburn and Middlesbrough and lose at Chelsea.

Grant has already begun the mindgames by demanding Wigan put up an honest fight on Sunday and suggesting the pressure is all on United, but he would undoubtedly swap places with Sir Alex Ferguson. Winning at Wigan, who have grown into a tenacious little side under the management of Steve Bruce, certainly won't be easy, regardless of their current league position, but it's difficult to see United's experienced players slipping up at such a crucial moment. A United goal difference win seems the most likely outcome then, and that would seem a fittingly tight finish to what has been one of the most thrilling title races in years.

RELEGATION
Mathematically, there are five teams who still have the threat of relegation hovering over their heads. However, as Bolton are three points above Fulham and Reading and four ahead of Birmingham with a superior goal difference to the former duo, it would take a significant overhaul of eleven in GD for Gary Megson's men to drop into the Championship. Realistically then, the battle is down to Fulham, Reading and Birmingham, and here the permutations get particularly difficult.

As they are a point behind both Reading and Fulham in nineteenth, Birmingham are favourites to be relegated. They play Blackburn Rovers at home, while Reading face Derby and Fulham Portsmouth. The result of Reading's trip to Pride Park is relevant to them only if Fulham lose or draw at Pompey because a Fulham win would relegate Reading and Birmingham regardless. If the Cottagers do fail to win and Reading beat Derby, Birmingham would still be relegated no matter what. If Birmingham win and both Reading and Fulham don't, Birmingham survive. If Birmingham win along with one of the other two, Birmingham go down.

If Reading beat Derby and Fulham beat Portsmouth, Birmingham are relegated no matter what they do (the same would apply if all three teams either lose or draw), but the issue of who joins them would go down to goal difference. At the moment, Fulham have a GD of -23, with Reading on -29. If both teams finish with their goal difference level - and with the difference between them being that small it is a possibility - relegation would be decided on who has scored the most goals. At the moment, both teams are level, having scored 37 goals each.

Fulham have their fate in their own hands, and victory would secure them safety, barring a Reading win and goal difference turnaround. If they lose or draw, and both Reading and Birmingham win, they are relegated along with Birmingham. If they lose and Reading pick up at least a point, they are relegated. If they draw, and Reading win they are relegated. If they and Reading both draw, they survive on goal difference. If Fulham and Reading lose, it would come down to goal difference, with Fulham being in the driving seat, but if that happens and Birmingham draw, Birmingham would survive and the other two go down because of their superior goal difference.

It seems doubtful though that such complex mathematics will come into play though. Having won three of their last four games, Fulham are in pole position to stay up, and their trip to Portsmouth is certainly winnable because the hosts have the FA Cup final to prepare for. Despite failing to score in their last six matches, Reading are Fulham's biggest rivals, and they too face a winnable game against Derby. So it's Birmingham who face the toughest task in their game against Blackburn. They are out of form and down on confidence, but having been in a strong position just a few weeks ago, the Blues will know that if they do go down they will only have themselves to blame.

UEFA CUP AND INTERTOTO CUP
English clubs are offered three UEFA Cup spots. Tottenham Hotspur have one thanks to their Carling Cup win, the winner of the FA Cup final between Cardiff and Portsmouth will claim another and the team who finishes fifth in the league will have the final one. Only Aston Villa and Everton can do this, and the Toffees are in the driving seat. They are three points ahead of Villa and know that a win or draw at home to Newcastle will sew up fifth. Villa must hope for a Newcastle win and victory at West Ham. If this happens, Villa would take the place on goal difference.

The Intertoto Cup is another possible path into Europe if Villa don't finish fifth, but they will be challenged by Manchester City and Blackburn, who have both signaled their intent to play in the competition (Portsmouth have decided not to apply). The spot will go to the team who finishes highest, so at the moment Villa have the advantage and would secure the spot with victory over West Ham. However, if Villa lose or draw and Rovers win, the place will go to Mark Hughes's men. If Rovers draw and Villa lose, the place would go to Villa due to their vastly superior goal difference. City can only nick the place if Villa and Blackburn pull out.

The final road into Europe is through the UEFA Fair Play League, a route which helped City get through to the UEFA Cup in 2002-03. Three spots are available. An automatic berth goes to the country who top the Fair Play League, which is currently Norway. England are one of seven other countries in the running for one of the two other places. The two successful countries will be decided with a lottery before the UEFA Cup final on May 13th at Eastlands. If England is drawn out, the team who finished highest in the Premier League Fair Play table who hasn't already qualified for Europe will get the place. At the moment, City are leading the way, with Fulham just behind.

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